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Floods in Tabasco.
Yes, I know, I have somewhat abandoned this blog. Twitter kidnapped me, but hey, try to catch up. As you can ahber noticed me very interested in the topic of risk analysis. In October I published an article in Nexus about why climate change should be addressed by the Calderon government as a national security problem, and then I generously invited the British Embassy to talk about it in the presentation of RUSI report this week that concludes. The report, preliminary, shows the effects that climate change can have in Mexico and Central America in various scenarios, ublish in 2015 and 2030.

Interestingly the concept of "security" using RUSI, political and social stability. Simple, but powerful, I think. Goes beyond the typical vision of a national security trapped by drugs and crime. What impacts of climate change see the report in Mexico?

- Extreme weather events will increase financial and political weight of the response governments to disasters, while they seek to maintain the rule of law, protect people and ensure the supply of food and aid, while communities recover.

- Climate change will lead to more intense competition for resources among social groups, and therefore their greater scarcity. This can lead to dissatisfaction with the government. - The water management systems are under increasing pressure as climate change increases the trends of drought, causing fierce competition and tension between water users nationally and internationally.

- Climate change will be a catalyst of increased migration due to its impact on communities. This will cause social problems in the expulsion and reception areas, nationally and internationally.
- In an area where governance is limited, resources are scarce and under pressure, lifestyle, climate change catalyze powerful organized crime to establish a strong presence. And these are just some of the conclusions. The full report will be presented in June 2010.